NFL Picks Today: 5 Sunday Matchups to Watch – October 4, 2026
Sunday's ASA NFL board features five matchups from the early and late windows, highlighted by undefeated Kansas City visiting undefeated Las Vegas in the AFC West, Buffalo trying to remain perfect against New England and Seattle hosting a desperate 0-3 Chargers team.
Five Week 4 Matchups on the ASA Radar
New England Patriots at Buffalo Bills
Patriots at Bills
Buffalo enters Week 4 undefeated, while New England travels to Orchard Park trying to respond to its most difficult result of the young season.
The Patriots fell 35-6 at Jacksonville last Sunday. New England's offense struggled to generate sustained production, and a road trip against an unbeaten division opponent creates an immediate test of whether those problems were opponent-specific or part of a larger early-season issue.
Buffalo improved to 3-0 with a 24-16 victory over the Chargers. The Bills overcame five turnovers in that game, which creates an unusual handicapping combination: Buffalo survived despite poor ball security, but repeated giveaways against a division opponent could produce a very different result.
The betting question is not simply whether Buffalo is better. It is whether the current price adequately accounts for Buffalo's advantages without becoming inflated by New England's ugly Week 3 result.
New York Jets at Chicago Bears
Jets at Bears
Chicago returns to Soldier Field on a short week after its convincing 27-7 Monday night victory over Philadelphia. The Bears improved to 2-1, while the Jets enter Sunday at 1-2 after a 31-24 loss at Detroit.
The biggest early-week variable remains Chicago's quarterback situation. Caleb Williams missed the Philadelphia game with a hamstring injury, and the Bears had not announced their Week 4 starter as of Wednesday.
The Jets also opened the practice week with personnel questions. Running back Breece Hall was among the New York players who did not participate Wednesday, making the later injury reports important before evaluating the Jets offense.
Do not finalize this handicap before Chicago confirms its quarterback and the Jets provide more clarity on Hall and the rest of their injury report. Those developments can directly affect both the spread and total.
Jacksonville Jaguars at Cincinnati Bengals
Jaguars at Bengals
Jacksonville and Cincinnati enter Week 4 with identical 2-1 records, but they arrive from very different Week 3 results.
The Jaguars dominated New England 35-6, while Cincinnati suffered its first loss of the season in a 30-27 divisional game at Pittsburgh.
The early injury reports deserve attention on both sides. Cincinnati opened the week with multiple defensive players limited or unavailable, including B.J. Hill and Kyle Dugger among the nonparticipants. Jacksonville also listed several limited participants, including receiver Jakobi Meyers.
The defensive availability for Cincinnati deserves particular attention. Jacksonville's offensive matchup changes if the Bengals enter Sunday compromised along the defensive front or in the secondary.
Kansas City Chiefs at Las Vegas Raiders
Chiefs at Raiders
The marquee matchup on this portion of Sunday's board comes in Las Vegas, where Kansas City and the Raiders put matching 3-0 records on the line in an AFC West showdown.
Kansas City enters after a 24-10 road victory over Miami. The Chiefs have opened the season perfectly with Patrick Mahomes back under center after returning from the ACL injury that ended his 2025 season.
Las Vegas has been one of the early surprises of the season. The Raiders are also 3-0 after scoring 35 points in their Week 3 victory at New Orleans.
One individual matchup deserves particular attention: Mahomes against Maxx Crosby and the Las Vegas pass rush. Pressure without sacrificing coverage integrity can be one of the few ways to consistently disrupt Kansas City's offense.
This is where team reputation and betting value can diverge. Kansas City's long-term reputation will influence the market, but Las Vegas has earned its 3-0 start. Evaluate the current number rather than assuming either the established favorite or early-season surprise automatically offers value.
Los Angeles Chargers at Seattle Seahawks
Chargers at Seahawks
The Chargers arrive in Seattle facing genuine early-season urgency. Los Angeles is 0-3 after losing 24-16 at Buffalo, while defending Super Bowl champion Seattle is 2-1 after suffering its first loss of the season.
Los Angeles' record does not tell the entire story of last week's performance. The Chargers defense forced five Buffalo turnovers, including two interceptions and three recovered fumbles, but the offense failed to turn enough of those opportunities into points.
Seattle is also trying to respond. The Seahawks fell behind Washington and never led in a 33-31 road loss, ending their undefeated start.
Los Angeles must convert field position and takeaways into touchdowns rather than simply winning the turnover statistic. Seattle's ability to avoid the early deficit that hurt the Seahawks in Washington also deserves attention.
Five Variables That Matter Across This NFL Board
1. Don't Overreact to Week 3
New England lost by 29, Jacksonville won by 29 and Chicago dominated Philadelphia. Those results matter, but the betting market also reacts to highly visible performances.
2. Quarterback Confirmation
Chicago's quarterback decision is significant enough that Jets-Bears should be re-evaluated after the starter and final injury information are confirmed.
3. Division Familiarity
Patriots-Bills and Chiefs-Raiders are division games. Familiar opponents can create different tactical environments than nonconference matchups.
4. Turnover Regression
Buffalo committed five turnovers and won. The Chargers forced five turnovers and lost. Neither turnover profile should automatically be projected forward unchanged.
5. Desperation Isn't a Betting System
The Chargers are 0-3 and badly need a win, but urgency by itself does not create point-spread value. Price and matchup remain the deciding factors.
Market Price Still Wins
A strong opinion about which team is better is only the beginning. The actual wager depends on whether the spread, total or moneyline offers value relative to the matchup.
Chiefs-Raiders: Undefeated AFC West Showdown
Kansas City and Las Vegas both enter 3-0, turning an already important rivalry game into an early battle for AFC West position. Patrick Mahomes against Maxx Crosby is the headline individual matchup, but the larger handicapping question is whether Las Vegas can sustain its early-season performance against the division's established standard.
Recheck Friday injury designations, Sunday inactive lists, Chicago's quarterback decision, weather and current betting numbers before finalizing the card. Several of these games have personnel questions that can materially change both the matchup and the market.
Five NFL Games — Only Qualified Value Makes the Card
Sunday gives ASA several different handicapping situations: Buffalo protecting an undefeated start, Chicago working through its quarterback decision, Jacksonville and Cincinnati meeting at 2-1, two undefeated AFC West rivals colliding in Las Vegas and the Chargers trying to avoid an 0-4 start in Seattle. Premium selections are reserved for situations where the matchup, current information and available betting number create enough value to qualify.
Information Used for Sunday's Matchups
- Official NFL Week 4 schedule and current game information.
- New England Patriots and Buffalo Bills official team information.
- Chicago Bears and New York Jets official Week 4 updates and injury reporting.
- Jacksonville Jaguars and Cincinnati Bengals official Week 4 injury reports.
- Kansas City Chiefs and Las Vegas Raiders official Week 4 previews.
- Los Angeles Chargers and Seattle Seahawks official Week 4 coverage.
More NFL Betting Analysis
Sports betting involves financial risk. Advanced Sports Advisors provides sports betting analysis, handicapping opinions and informational content. No pick, prediction or past result guarantees future performance. Verify final injury reports, inactive lists, starting quarterback information, weather and current betting markets before making any wagering decision.